What’s in store for the 2022/23 severe weather season?
We’ve certainly seen what the weather can deliver across Australia over the past few years – from bushfires to floods and everything in between.
So what’s in store this severe weather season, from October and into April 2023?
According to weatherzone, Australia will enter the severe weather season under the influence of three wet-phase climate drivers, causing an increase in rainfall, cloud cover and flooding.
La Niña in the Pacific Ocean to the northwest of Australia
A negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) to the northwest of Australia
A positive Southern Annular Mode (SAM) to the south of Australia
We can expect La Niña to affect weather until the end of 2022, reaching a peak around November. It will then weaken in December and dissipate in early 2023.
The IOD will hang around until the end of spring and most likely end at the beginning of summer, as monsoon conditions arrive in early summer.
The SAM will also persist until the end of 2022.
What does all of this mean?
Increased rain on the forecast
We can expect above average rainfall across the country for the rest of spring and early summer, as well as an increased chance of heavy rain and flooding in the coming months, concentrating in eastern Australia.
More thunderstorms
Increased storm activity can be expected across eastern and northern Australia, as well as across central Australia and the eastern interior, influenced by La Niña as it continues and breaks down in 2023.
Above normal thunderstorm activity is anticipated across northern Australia.
With these storms will come large hail, damaging wind and heavy rain.
High temperatures and heatwaves in the west
We can also expect extreme heat during spring and early summer, with Perth earmarked for an above average number of days over 35 degrees.
Tropical Cyclones
In northern Australia, with the combination of La Niña and deep tropical low activity, an increase in tropical cyclones is on the forecast – predicted to begin in mid to late December.
Northern wet season arriving early
Due to La Niña, we’ll see more rainfall earlier, from mid-October for large areas of the Northern Territory, Queensland and northern Western Australia.
However, as La Nina subsides, a wetter than average season is forecast for QLD and NT. A below average wet season is on the cards for northern WA.
Strong wind events in mid-to-late summer
While less strong wind events are forecast overall, we can expect an increase in strong winds during mid-to-late summer, in conjunction with cold fronts and storms.
Source: Weatherzone
